[SMM Daily Coke & Coal Brief Comment] 20250604

Published: Jun 4, 2025 17:20

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[SMM Daily Review of Coking Coal and Coke] In terms of supply, the profitability of most coking enterprises has improved, and their production enthusiasm is moderate, with the actual supply remaining relatively loose. On the demand side, affected by the traditional off-season, steel mills are facing increased inventory pressure on finished products, and pig iron production continues to decline, resulting in reduced rigid demand for coke. In summary, the fundamentals of coke are bearish. However, driven by market sentiment in the futures market, market confidence has increased. This week, coke prices may remain in the doldrums.

[SMM Daily Briefing on Coking Coal]

Coking Coal Market:

In Linfen, the quoted price for low-sulphur coking coal is 1,230 yuan/mt. In Tangshan, the quoted price for low-sulphur coking coal is 1,280 yuan/mt.

In terms of raw material fundamentals, coal mines are temporarily operating normally, and the supply of coking coal is relatively loose. Coal mines are facing inventory buildup pressure, and spot sales are sluggish. However, there were many market rumors on Wednesday. Firstly, the Prime Minister of Mongolia stepped down, and Outer Mongolia announced that it would impose a 20% resource tax on coal exports, but there is currently no official source confirming the imposition of the resource tax. Secondly, the "Mineral Resources Law of the People's Republic of China" will come into effect from July 1, 2025. The news has had a strong stimulating effect, driving a significant strengthening of the coking coal futures market. This has been transmitted to the spot coking coal market, potentially leading to a shift in spot coking coal prices to in the doldrums this week.

Coke Market:

The nationwide average price for premium metallurgical coke (dry quenching) is 1,570 yuan/mt. The nationwide average price for quasi-premium metallurgical coke (dry quenching) is 1,430 yuan/mt. The nationwide average price for premium metallurgical coke (wet quenching) is 1,240 yuan/mt. The nationwide average price for quasi-premium metallurgical coke (wet quenching) is 1,150 yuan/mt.

In terms of supply, the profitability of most coking enterprises has improved, and their production enthusiasm is moderate, with actual supply still leaning towards being loose. On the demand side, affected by the traditional off-season, steel mills are facing increased inventory pressure on finished products, and pig iron production is still declining, reducing the rigid demand for coke. In summary, the fundamentals of coke are bearish, but driven by market sentiment in the futures market, market confidence has increased, and coke prices may operate in the doldrums this week. [SMM Steel]

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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